Bundesliga Updated Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our Best Bets, Featuring Bayern Munich vs. Wolfsburg

The Bundesliga began its season last week with BayernMunich establishing its league dominance once again in a 6-1 win victory at Eintracht Frankfurt.

In other action, Borussia Dortmund earned a 1-0 win against Bayer Leverkusen in a battle of hopeful title challengers, while RB Leipzig dropped points on the road at Stuttgart in a 1-1 draw.

The second week of matches kicks off Friday, with Dortmund visiting Freiburg, which I previewed here at the Action Network. Schalke has its first home game in its return to the Bundesliga when it hosts Borussia Mönchengladbach on Saturday at 12:30 p.m. ET, while Bayern hosts Wolfsburg in Sunday's game.

Here are my three favorite bets from across the eight-game weekend slate in the German top flight:

Bundesliga Best Bets

Leverkusen vs. Augsburg

Leverkusen dropped its opener at Dortmund, but the performance was relatively even across the entire 90 minutes. The club lost the expected-goals battle by a 1.5-1.2 margin. It also struggled to create enough high turnovers to create the transition chances needed to break open the Dortmund defense.

Even despite struggles to control the game and create consistent pressure, Leverkusen created two big scoring chances through Patrik Schick and the Czech striker failed to convert both of them. He's due to regress a bit in his finishing after an unsustainable run of red-hot finishing last season, but I fully expect Schick to be one of the most prolific strikers in Germany this season.

Augsburg created 0.5 xG at home against Freiburg, which isn't encouraging. United States international Ricardo Pepi had one big chance off the bench, but otherwise, no forward took more than a shot in the match.

My projection makes Leverkusen a 1.73 goal favorite to beat lowly Augsburg and I think we're getting a slightly cheaper price because of the loss to Dortmund. The market also shows a bit of respect to the extreme counterattacking profile of Augsburg, which will struggle to stop Leverkusen from easily entering the penalty area and creating plenty of chances.

By The Numbers

• +1.15 — Leverkusen had a +1.15 xG difference per 90 minutes in the second half of last season, which was second best in the Bundesliga and nearly level with Bayern Munich.
• -0.72 — Augsburg's xG difference per 90 minutes in the second half of the 2021-22 campaign, which was second worst only to Arminia Bielefeld.

Dabbundo's Pick: Leverkusen -1.5 (-120 or better)

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FC Schalke vs. Gladbach

Not much can be learned from the first match for either team, as Borussia Mönchengladbach's win came after a red card to a Hoffenheim player in the 25th minute. The Foals went on to win 3-1, while an early red card against Schalke led to a 3-1 defeat to Köln.

Just about everything went wrong for Gladbach last season, as commitment to manager Adi Hütter was in question from the third week of the campaign and the Foals were unable to quell their constant defensive woes.

By xGA, Gladbach conceded the sixth-most chances in the league. Given the Foals' solid field tilt metrics, which show more time spent in the opponent's half, and the defensive quality of the players in the side, that level of defensive frailty is unlikely to continue.

Breel Embolo has left the club, but Farke seems committed to playing Marcus Thuram and Alassane Pleá together up top, That's where Gladbach was successful in seasons prior to the last campaign.

Both had very down years, which is a major reason the Foals vastly underperformed their xG numbers. I'm buying low on Gladbach once again, especially against a Schalke side that was a bit fortunate to get promoted given its third best xG difference in the 2. Bundesliga.

By The Numbers

• 1.38 — Schalke conceded this number of xGA per match at home in the 2. Bundesliga last season, which was sixth best in the league.
• 61  — Number of goals Gladbach conceded last campaign, which marked the third most in the Bundesliga.

Dabbundo's Pick: Gladbach ML (+120 or better)

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Bayern Munich vs. Wolfsburg

Bayern didn't look like it missed Robert Lewandowski at all in its first match without him in the Bundesliga.

Since that 6-1 win, the market has since adjusted a bit too far to just one match against an — in my view — overrated Eintracht Frankfurt side to begin with ahead of this contest. Unlike Frankfurt, a club that trended down in performance as things progressed last season, Wolfsburg improved in the second half after a poor start to the campaign.

Werder Bremen scored two goals on its first three shots on low-percentage chances, but Wolfsburg controlled a lot of the exchanges in that match. That won't happen at Bayern, but it has shown defensive solidity and an ability to keep the host from easily dominating it in transition sequences.

Last season was a disappointing one across the board for Wolfsburg, but new manager Niko Kovač has a solid track record and I expect him to improve the defense like he did at past stops at Frankfurt and Monaco.

This is a hold-your-nose bet, but I'll feel pretty good about our chances of covering +2.5 goals if Wolfsburg is able to just break through once for a goal. My projection has Bayern by 2.09 goals ahead of this affair.

By The Numbers

• -6.8 — Wolfsburg underperformed its xG by more than any other team in the Bundesliga last season and positive regression is coming in that area.
• 4 — Wolfsburg ranked fourth in average shot distance allowed and average non-penalty xG per shot allowed last campaign.

Dabbundo's Pick: Wolfsburg +2.5 (-120 or better)