NFL Week 5 Player Props: Picks for Anytime Touchdown Picks for Zach Ertz

Week 5 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks

Kareem Hunt
ATD +170 (FanDuel)

Hunt is the best backup running back in the league, and he’s getting serious run in the Browns backfield this season.

Hunt has four red-zone targets this season compared to Nick Chubb’s zero. Hunt has 13 red-zone carries compared to Chubb’s 15. And then this stat stood out to me: Hunt has had at least one red-zone carry inside the 10-yard line in all four games this season.

The Chargers have been struggling against running backs this season, allowing five touchdowns to opposing RBs this season. Three of those have been receiving touchdowns, which works well for Hunt.

Also, last season in Los Angeles, Hunt ran for two touchdowns and Chubb got one against the Chargers.

Hunt has been +150 or lower every week to score a touchdown, so I’ll jump on +170.

Terry McLaurin
ATD +210 (FanDuel)

McLaurin has played over 90% of snaps this season and has a team-leading four red-zone targets this season, but only one touchdown. Jahan Dotson has four touchdowns this season, but he’s out this week.

The Titans secondary has given up six touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season, which is the second most in the NFL. Facing Tennessee this season, opposing WR1s have gotten a lot of respect in the ATD market:

• Stefon Diggs -110
• Davante Adams +110
• 
Michael Pittman Jr. +150

I’m not saying McLaurin is on those receivers’ level, but those odds make this feel like a great deal. These are peak odds this season for McLaurin, who was down at +150 in Week 3 against the Eagles.

I’d also consider Curtis Samuel this week, as I think both he and McLaurin could have big Week 5s.

Pat Freiermuth
ATD +390 (FanDuel)

The Steelers simply haven’t been in the red zone often this season. Freiermuth does lead them with three red-zone targets and 30 overall looks through four games, though.

This is Kenny Pickett’s first start and while he may struggle in Buffalo, he’s an upgrade over Mitch Trubisky. Pittsburgh will be facing a Bills defense without LB Tremaine Edmunds. The Bills only allowed four TDs to opposing tight ends last season, but two of those came in the two games Edmunds missed last season.

The odds are good here, since we’ve only gotten around +250 from Freiermuth so far this season.

Olamide Zaccheaus
ATD +500 (bet365)

This one is a bit tough to swallow because the Falcons offense is tough to watch. Marcus Mariota’s attempts and yardage have decreased in every game.

I like Zaccheaus here because of his opportunity within the Atlanta offense. Kyle Pitts and Corrdarrelle Patterson are going to miss Week 5, and Zaccheaus has seen plenty of the field this season, playing a big role behind Drake London.

Mariota has thrown three touchdowns this season. London has two, and Zaccheaus has the other. London is around +200, but there’s no reason Zaccheaus should be above +400.

Zach Ertz
ATD +290 (DraftKings)

There aren’t a lot of reliable pass-catching options for Kyler Murray nowadays, but I like Ertz this week to score his third touchdown.

Ertz is second in the NFL in red-zone targets with 10. Six of those have been inside the 10-yard line. He’ll have even less competition for targets at his position with Arizona releasing Maxx Williams this week.

The Eagles have been decent this season against opposing tight ends, but it wasn’t long ago that we were banking on a TE to score every week against Philly. The Eagles gave up 14 touchdowns to opposing tight ends last season.

According to our own Nick Giffen’s model, Ertz should be closer to +245. That means we’re getting a good number here on DraftKings.