NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions For Week 10: The Case For Betting the Colts To Cover Their Spread vs. the Bills

Do we really think the Bills are a full touchdown better than the Colts?

I don't buy it.

The Bills certainly looked like themselves this past Sunday with a huge win over the Jets, but let's remember that the Colts blew the Jets out, too. Buffalo still runs hot and cold, but while Indianapolis might not be great, it's pretty good.

The Colts entered Week 10 ranking inside the top 12 of Football Outsiders' overall DVOA as well as offensive and defensive DVOA. They're a solid, well-built team that probably isn't going to win a Super Bowl, but will be a tough out against any opponent thanks to a very sturdy defense and a run game that's been outstanding with Jonathan Taylor featured.

This feels very much like one of those Saturday afternoon opening weekend AFC wild-card matchups with lots of defense and punting, plenty of cold weather and that old nostalgic feeling of football.

I see this game being tight throughout, with a few key plays swinging it in either direction. And honestly, are we really that much more confident in Josh Allen than Carson Wentz right now to make this a 7.5-point spread? This is not the same Allen or Bills offense we saw a year ago, no matter how many points they hang on the Jets. Remember, this is the same team that just scored six — six! — points in a loss to the Jaguars.

This line is too high. I'm grabbing it at +7 or better before it's gone — and I do expect the spread to move a bit toward Indy. I may end up playing the moneyline, too, but I'm definitely grabbing the +7.5 while I can.

Pick: Colts +7.5 | Bet to: +7