Cowboys vs Eagles Player Props: Fade A.J. Brown on Sunday Night Football

A.J. Brown Receiving Yards

I realize this bet isn’t for the faint of heart, but there are a few reasons why I like this prop.

1) Jalen Hurts will likely face more pressure than usual against a Cowboys team that leads the league in pressure rate. It could force Hurts to scramble more, which will lead to fewer pass attempts.

2) A.J. Brown has seen a 33% target rate as Hurts' clear No. 1 target when he has a clean pocket. However, his target rate plummets to 19% when Hurts has faced pressure this year. DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are Hurts’ top targets when facing pressure.

3) It’s a tough matchup on paper as the Cowboys rank fourth in DVOA against the pass and the fact they use zone coverage at the ninth-highest rate isn’t ideal for Brown as he has averaged an absurd 3.74 yards per route run against man coverage, but a modest 1.67 yards per route run against zone.

Quickslip: A.J. Brown Under 68.5 Receiving Yards

I guarantee you books are taking most of their action on the over for a prop like this. As a result, these props are a bit inflated and there is value in backing Brown’s under here.

One of the ways to embrace backing an under like this is to realize that we aren’t just betting against Brown (in a sense), and one way to think about this is we are rooting for Jalen Hurts to scramble for big gains, Smith and Goedert to have big games, and for the Eagles to play with a comfortable lead, which will lead to more running plays for Miles Sanders.

I’ve found it helps the nerves to find things to root “for” that will increase the chances of this under to hit, as opposed to being tense just thinking, "Oh my God, I hope Brown doesn't catch a pass on this play."

I’m projecting his median closer to 62.5 yards and would bet this down to 67.5.