2022 College Football Bowl Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Week 3 Predictions With Projected Spreads

2022 College Football Bowl Projections

Following one of the craziest Saturdays in recent college football history, my new bowl projections this week have a much, much different look than last week.

Marshall’s upset win at Notre Dame and Houston’s overtime loss at Texas Tech vaults the Thundering Herd into the Cotton Bowl as my projection for the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six bowl representative.

Also, losses by Pitt, Baylor, Wisconsin and Florida — all projected among the New Year’s Six bowls last week — have resulted in all four of those major bowls having different matchups this week. Say hello to Michigan State, USC, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Kentucky.

Did I mention I’m also now projecting an SEC vs. Big Ten showdown in each of the College Football Playoff semifinals in the Fiesta and Peach bowls? That, my friends, is called burying the lede.

This week, my semifinals feature my projected No. 1 seed Georgia vs. No. 4 seed Michigan in the Peach Bowl and No. 2 seed Ohio State vs. No. 3 seed Alabama in the Fiesta Bowl.

Keep reading to see all the changes. Each matchup includes the projected point spread based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s current college football betting power ratings.

Updated 2022 College Football Betting Power Ratings

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CFP National Championship Prediction

• CFP National Championship

  Monday, Jan. 9

  ⋅

  Los Angeles, CA

  Georgia

  Alabama

  -2.5

College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections

• Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 31

  ⋅

  Atlanta, GA

  Georgia

  -7

  Michigan
• Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 31

  ⋅

  Glendale, AZ

  Ohio State

  Alabama

  -1

New Year's Six Bowl Games

• Rose Bowl

  Monday, Jan. 2

  ⋅

  Pasadena, CA

  USC

  Michigan State

  -1.5
• Goodyear Cotton Bowl

  Monday, Jan. 2

  ⋅

  Arlington, TX

  Oklahoma

  -11.5

  Marshall

• Allstate Sugar Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 31

  ⋅

  New Orleans, LA

  Oklahoma State

  -2

  Kentucky
• Capital One Orange Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 30

  ⋅

  Miami, FL

  Miami

  -2.5

  Arkansas

Projections for All Other Bowls

• Citrus Bowl

  Monday, Jan. 2

  ⋅

  Orlando, FL

  Penn State

  Tennessee

  -0.5
• ReliaQuest Bowl

  Monday, Jan. 2

  ⋅

  Tampa, FL

  Texas A&M

  -2.5

  Wisconsin
• Music City Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 31

  ⋅

  Nashville, TN

  Maryland

  Florida

  -1.5

• Arizona Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 30

  ⋅

  Tucson, AZ

  Ohio

  Fresno State

  -14.5
• TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 30

  ⋅

  Jacksonville, FL

  Clemson

  -7.5

  LSU
• Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 30

  ⋅

  El Paso, TX

  Wake Forest

  PK

  UCLA

  PK

• Duke's Mayo Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 30

  ⋅

  Charlotte, NC

  NC State

  -7

  Iowa
• Valero Alamo Bowl

  Thursday, Dec. 29

  ⋅

  San Antonio, TX

  Baylor

  Utah

  -2.5
• Cheez-It Bowl

  Thursday, Dec. 29

  ⋅

  Orlando, FL

  Notre Dame

  Texas

  -1.5

• Pinstripe Bowl

  Thursday, Dec. 29

  ⋅

  Bronx, NY

  North Carolina

  -2

  Minnesota
• TaxAct Texas Bowl

  Wednesday, Dec. 28

  ⋅

  Houston, TX

  TCU

  Mississippi State

  -1
• Holiday Bowl

  Wednesday, Dec. 28

  ⋅

  San Diego, CA

  Florida State

  -10.5

  Oregon State

• AutoZone Liberty Bowl

  Wednesday, Dec. 28

  ⋅

  Memphis, TN

  Iowa State

  Auburn

  -0.5
• Military Bowl

  Wednesday, Dec. 28

  ⋅

  Annapolis, MD

  Pittsburgh

  -7

  UCF
• Guaranteed Rate Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 27

  ⋅

  Phoenix, AZ

  Illinois

  Kansas State

  -3

• Camellia Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 27

  ⋅

  Montgomery, AL

  Toledo

  -2

  Louisiana
• Birmingham Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 27

  ⋅

  Birmingham, AL

  Purdue

  BYU

  -4
• First Responder Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 27

  ⋅

  Dallas, TX

  Washington State

  Texas Tech

  -10.5

• Quick Lane Bowl

  Monday, Dec. 26

  ⋅

  Detroit, MI

  Indiana

  -13.5

  Ball State
• EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 24

  ⋅

  Honolulu, HI

  Boise State

  UTSA

  -1.5
• Gasparilla Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 23

  ⋅

  Tampa, FL

  Duke

  Rutgers

  -4

• Independence Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 23

  ⋅

  Shreveport, LA

  Army

  Tulane

  -6.5
• Armed Forces Bowl

  Thursday, Dec. 22

  ⋅

  Fort Worth, TX

  Arizona State

  SMU

  -1.5
• New Orleans Bowl

  Wednesday, Dec. 21

  ⋅

  New Orleans, LA

  Western Kentucky

  Appalachian State

  -6.5

• Boca Raton Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 20

  ⋅

  Boca Raton, FL

  Memphis

  -2.5

  San Diego State
• Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 20

  ⋅

  Boise, ID

  Eastern Michigan

  -4

  Utah State
• Myrtle Beach Bowl

  Monday, Dec. 19

  ⋅

  Conway, SC

  Coastal Carolina

  East Carolina

  -6.5

• Frisco Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Frisco, TX

  Syracuse

  Houston

  -1
• Las Vegas Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Las Vegas, NV

  Ole Miss

  Oregon

  -1
• LendingTree Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Mobile, AL

  UAB

  -13

  Georgia Southern

• Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Los Angeles, CA

  Washington

  -2.5

  Air Force
• New Mexico Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Albuquerque, NM

  San Jose State

  -5.5

  Liberty
• Wasabi Fenway Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Boston, MA

  Virginia Tech

  Cincinnati

  -8.5

• Duluth Trading Cure Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 16

  ⋅

  Orlando, FL

  North Texas

  Old Dominion

  -2
• Bahamas Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 16

  ⋅

  Nassau, Bahamas

  Florida Atlantic

  Northern Illinois

  -3
• TBA Bowl**

  TBD

  ⋅

  TBD

  Georgia State

  -15

  UTEP

* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Cotton Bowl if it does not qualify for College Football Playoff.

**ESPN will create a bowl this fall to replace the San Francisco Bowl if it is not played.

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