NCAA National Title Props for Kansas vs. UNC: Betting Value on a Jalen Wilson Under & Christian Braun Over (April 4)

Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, reveals his top player props for the national championship between Kansas and North Carolina. He has a 35-16 (69%) record on 2022 NCAA Tournament props he’s tracked in the Action app, where you can follow all of his picks.

Each of the following picks is based, in part, on discrepancies between the player projections created by our predictive analytics team and the odds available as of writing. You can find more potential edges with our Action Labs Props Tool.

NCAA Championship Props

Christian Braun Over 12.5 Points (-110)

With Leaky Black likely to be on Ochai Agbaji, and Armando Bacot likely to be on David McCormack, Braun should benefit from this matchup. North Carolina doesn’t force many turnovers or send opponents to the free-throw line often, so Kansas should see an increase in field goal attempts. That will only help a player like Braun, who doesn’t rely on getting to the line to score.

Braun has cleared 12.5 points in 67% of his games this season, and with our projection of 14.5 points, we're giving him a 60% chance of going over this number again.

Pick: Over 12.5 (-110) at PointsBet | Bet to: -130

Jalen Wilson Under 8.5 Rebounds (+105)

This under is not for the faint of heart.

Wilson has crushed his rebound prop in four straight games, and in each case, our projections suggested potential value on the overs. But this time, our projections indicate potential value on him staying under.

It's all based on the matchup

North Carolina is a very good rebounding team — the Tar Heels are second in defensive rebound rate in the country (thanks to Armando Bacot). Kansas will probably want to give David McCormack as many minutes as he can handle (likely in the 28-30 range), which will likely eat into Wilson’s rebounds.

Wilson will also likely be guarding Brady Manek, who shoots a ton of 3s, so Wilson might not be in a position to get a rebound on a handful of shots.

We're projecting Wilson for closer to eight rebounds with a 58% chance of going under.

Pick: Under 8.5 (+105) at BetMGM | Bet to: +100

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