UFC Fight Night Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Claudia Gadelha vs. Xiaonan Yan, Darren Elkins vs. Eduardo Garagorri (Saturday, Nov. 7)
Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: Claudia Gadelha.
- Need a one-stop shop for all your UFC bets? We've combined Sean Zeriilo’s UFC Models and our favorite bets for tonight's UFC Action.
- See where our crew is finding betting value on two matchups: Gadelha vs. Yan and Elkins vs. Garagorri.
Tonight's UFC slate has some fantastic matchups with Thiago Santos and Glover Teixeira headlining the action on Saturday. The 11-fight card starts at 7 p.m. with six preliminary fights and five fights on the main card, which begins at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN.
This week, we've included Sean Zerillo's projections for tonight's card and you can see his picks by following him in The Action Network's app.
UFC Fight Night Moneylines
UFC Fight Night Props
Our crew has pinpointed two specific fights on Saturday’s undercard and main that present some betting value. You can find their analysis and picks on those matches below.
UFC Fight Night Betting Picks
Reed Wallach: Claudia Gadelha vs. Xiaonan Yan
Contributor at The Action Network
This line has shifted quite a bit from earlier in the week when this was priced around -110. Money has poured in on Yan, who is 5-0 in the UFC with all wins coming by decision.
However, I see this fight as a step up in competition against the veteran Gadelha who is starting to reestablish herself in the Strawweight division.
Gadelha's first fight in nearly a year, a split decision win over Angela Hill, saw her land 84 of 210 strikes, according to UFC Stats. While the accuracy may not be there, the fact that "Claudinha" was able to keep her cardio up enough to throw that many strikes is a great starting point heading into this one.
Her gas tank is always the biggest question, and even though she took home a controversial decision victory, she showcased her talents: solid striking but a fantastic takedown game.
Her opponent is a very polished striker, but that is where she likes to keep it. If this becomes a kickboxing match, Gadelha may be in over her head, but her ability to change levels and get this to the ground can give her a significant edge, as seen through her win over Hill this past spring. The path is there for victory for the Brazilian.
Yan has not faced a fighter with the type of takedown abilities that Gadelha possesses, and even though Yan may have the momentum, Gadelha is a step up in class for her and I project this line where it opened, a coin flip. Give me the more experienced fighter that can take rounds with ground control and give the trendy prospect some different looks.
The Pick: Claudia Gadelha +130 (Play to +120)
Malik Smith: Darren Elkins vs. Eduardo Garagorri
Senior Editor at The Action Network
I singled out this matchup because, as Sean Zerillo's models show, there is a pretty good betting edge here. Elkins enters this matchup riding a four-fight losing streak that dates back to January 2018. His opponent, Garagorri, is still relatively new to the UFC with just two fights under his belt. The edge in the model isn't on either fighter, though, instead coming on the distance prop.
As a striker, Elkins is behind in every category compared to Garagorri. However, he is significantly better when it comes to grappling skills. He has a +1.64 edge in takedowns per 15 minutes, according to UFC Stats. Elkins also leads all active Featherweights in fights to go to a decision according to the UFC record book.
I'll side with Zerillo's model and back this fight to go the distance (-137) at PointsBet. I'm also going to back the veteran to pick up a win by decision (+150) as the model sees a big edge in the odds for Elkins.
The Pick: Fight Goes the Distance (-137) | Elkins by Decision (+150)
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