Orioles vs. Blue Jays MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Why to Back Visiting Underdogs (Monday, August 15)

Orioles vs. Blue Jays Odds

The Baltimore Orioles went 52-110 last year, but they've been much improved this season.

Baltimore has already won 59 games and enters play Monday just two games back of the Tampa Bay Rays in the loss column for the third wild card spot in the American League. Every game is important this late in the season for the Orioles and their fans – for the first time since the last time they were a wild card team in 2016.

The Toronto Blue Jays were the preseason favorite to win the AL Eastern division, and while they still have pole position among the three wild card teams, they also trail the division-leading Yankees by 11 games entering play Monday.

Who will ultimately get the job done and take home the victory?

Baltimore Orioles

While the Orioles traded closer Jorge Lopez at the trade deadline, this is still a team with a good bullpen.

Felix Bautista is more than capable to step in as the closer as he's shown this season with a 1.69 ERA. On the mound to start the game will be Kyle Bradish, who has a 6.42 ERA this season. However, he's been fairly consistent recently and has completed at least five innings and allowed three earned runs or less in each of his past three starts, including one against Toronto.

Bradish has an ugly ERA, but his xFIP is much better at 4.51. He's allowed a .248 ISO to right-handed batters this season, and the Blue Jays have three hitters with ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Teoscar Hernandez and Matt Chapman.

Toronto is 12th in all of baseball averaging 4.55 runs per game at home this season.

Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi has a 5.13 ERA and 5.01 xFIP this season.

Those numbers aren't very good, and there's reason to believe he's been getting lucky. He has a .280 BABIP allowed this season compared to a career .298 BABIP allowed, so we can expect to see some negative regression come his way, which is also confirmed by his 5.98 xERA.

In Kikuchi's past three starts, he has just a .212 BABIP and still has a 5.14 ERA and 6.12 FIP because he's allowed four home runs in 14 innings (2.60 HR/9). His career HR/9 is 1.70, and while his HR/9 is 2.05 this year, we can expect there to be fewer home runs but more base hits in Kikuchi's future. He's allowed a .263 ISO to right-handed batters this season, and the Orioles have two hitters with ISOs above .200 against left-handed pitching this year in Ryan McKenna and Anthony Santander.

Baltimore is 17th in all of baseball averaging 4.20 runs per game on the road this season.

The must-have app for MLB bettors

The best MLB betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Orioles-Blue Jays Pick

I'm on the Orioles here. While neither starting pitcher inspires much confidence, Bradish has figured out how to get through five innings in each of his past three games, and that might be all the Orioles really need to put this game away.

Baltimore also has a good bullpen with Bautista at the backend, and the team's lineup should be able to put runs on the board against Kikuchi like they did when they scored five runs on three home runs against him in his previous start.

I took the Orioles moneyline at +135 on Draftkings Sportsbook, and I would bet it down to +130.

Pick: Orioles ML +135