MLB NRFI Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Sandy Alcantara, Chris Bassitt Shut It Down Early? (July 29)
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Sandy Alcantara
Shayne Trail breaks down his favorite NRFI/YRFI bet of the day below, but you can follow all of his bets in the Action Network app.
No Runs First Inning (-160)
| Matchup | C. Bassitt (Mets) vs. S. Alcantara (Marlins) |
| First Pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
On Friday, we head to Miami to take a NRFI between two National League East rivals, the Miami Marlins and the New York Mets.
The Marlins will send out their ace, Sandy Alcantara. Coming into today he holds a strong 16-4 NRFI record. A strong 2022 season now makes him 42-11 to the NRFI since 2021.
In 76 first-inning batters faced, Alcantara has only allowed 10 hits and seven walks, holding his first-inning opponents to an outstanding .152 average. When facing a lineup the first time through, Alcantara has also dominated, holding them to a .158 average.
Lastly, Alcantara performs well against teams lead-off hitters this year, only allowing a .175 average.
Here is how these Mets bats have done in the past against Alcantara.
- Starling Marte: 1-for10
- Pete Alonso: 5-for-27
- Brandon Nimmo: 3-for-26
- Eduardo Escobar: 2-for-18
On top of Alcantara dominating his matchups, the Mets' leadoff hitter has been in a slump coming out of the All-Star Break. Brandon Nimmo is just 3-for-22 in his last seven days. The first out in a NRFI is always the hardest to get.
The Mets NRFI 65% of the time as a team but their NRFI percentage significantly increases when they are on the road going all the way to 76% of the time in 2022.
The Mets will counter with their new addition to the rotation in Chris Bassitt. Coming into today, Bassitt is 15-3 to the NRFI with six of those 15 wins coming on the road.
To find Bassitt's true NRFI potential you have to look into oddsmakers making him a favorite or a dog. When Bassitt is listed as the favorite in 2022, he is a perfect 11-0 to the NRFI.
Here is how Bassitt has done in the past against these Marlins hitters:
- Joey Wendle: 1-for-6
- Avisail Garcia: 1-for-9
- Jesus Sanchez: 1-for-6
- Jesus Aguilar: 2-for-6
In the last two weeks, the Marlins' first innings hasn't been the most productive inning for them. In 46 plate appearances, they have only managed eight hits good for a .190 average and 23rd in MLB. This shouldn't come as a surprise as the Marlins' overall NRFI record is 82-17, hitting the NRFI 83% of the time in 2022.
Bet on these two dominant NRFI pitchers to a have collective three up/three down first inning today. Take the NRFI between the Mets and the Marlins.
As always, six outs to glory…
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