Canada and Finland meet in the semifinal round of the 2026 Winter Olympics. Puck drop is set for 10:40 a.m. EST at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy. The game will be broadcast live on USA Network and streamed on Peacock.
Canada is favored by -2.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (-115o/ -105u). Canada is a -500 favorite to win outright, while Finland is +380 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Canada vs Finland predictions and Olympics picks.
Finland vs Canada Odds, Pick
| Finland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -112 | 5.5 -115o / -105u | +380 |
| Canada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -108 | 5.5 -115o / -105u | -500 |
- Canada vs. Finland Puck Line: Canada -2.5 (-108), Finland +2.5 (-112)
- Canada vs. Finland Over/Under: 5.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Canada vs. Finland Moneyline: Canada -500, Finland +380
Canada vs. Finland Preview
Canada
Jordan Binnington appears to elevate his play on the international stage. At last year’s NHL 4 Nations tournament, he posted a 3-1 record with a .907 save percentage and a 2.37 goals-against average.
He followed that with a strong World Cup performance, again finishing 3-1 with a .944 save percentage and a 1.25 goals-against average. Now, at the Olympics, he has continued that form.
Through three starts, Binnington is 3-0 with a .922 save percentage and a 1.65 goals-against average. It helps that he plays behind a defensively sound Canadian roster, but he has been a rock in net.
Finland
Across the ice, Juuse Saros is projected to start. As strong as Binnington has been, Saros has arguably been even better.
The Finnish netminder has put together one of the top tournaments among goaltenders, trailing only Connor Hellebuyck. Through four games, Saros is 3-1 with a .938 save percentage and a 1.49 goals-against average.
Goaltending shouldn't be a concern in this matchup. The question for an under wager is whether both offenses can be contained. Canada’s offense is loaded, but Saros has demonstrated he can rise to the occasion.
Finland’s offense, meanwhile, may struggle against Binnington. While Finland defeated Italy 11-0, it is averaging just 2.67 goals per game in its other three contests against stronger competition.
Canada vs. Finland Prediction
As the tournament progresses toward the medal round, games typically tighten. Defensemen take fewer risks, and forwards commit more to two-way play.
That trend was evident in Finland’s quarterfinal win over Switzerland, a 3-2 overtime victory after rallying late. Canada’s quarterfinal game went over the total, but the Canadians did not face Saros in that matchup.
Saros is capable of keeping this contest close and low scoring.
Pick: Under 5.5 (-110 at bet365 | Play to -115)
