Perry’s 2020 Northern Trust Betting Guide, Odds & Picks: Right Back to the Well With Patrick Reed

You can think you have a tournament figured out, but once every couple years, Jim Herman comes along and reminds us we really know nothing.

Herman cashed for the third time since 2016 as a massive longshot with his victory at the Wyndham, ending the hopes of our best prop bet Billy Horschel and favorite outright Kevin Kisner, who finished second and third respectively.

Now we'll shift our attention to the first event of the FedEx Cup playoffs. The final stretch of the season begins at TPC Boston with the Northern Trust.

It was left out of the rotation last season when the playoffs were condensed from four events to three. But TPC Boston is a stop the tour players are pretty familiar with, having played there every season prior since 2003.

The Course

TPC Boston is a par 71 measuring 7,342 yards on the scorecard. The winners typically get in to the 15-to-20-under par range thanks in large part to some fairly reachable par-5 holes.

There really isn't too much on this course to cause trouble. The rough can get a little deep, and there is some tree trouble in spots if players stray too far off line.

Long hitters tend to have an edge: Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy have won the last three events on this course. Nonetheless, players that have more control off the tee and rely on elite iron play have also been successful: Rickie Fowler, Henrik Stenson and Webb Simpson also have won here.

The Favorites

In the past, we've seen a few guys skip the first playoff event, but that doesn't seem to be the case this year. Everyone in the top 125 of the standings will tee it up this week.

Four players stand at the top of the board as basically co-favorites. DeChambeau and Thomas opened at +1200, while McIlroy and Jon Rahm are at +1400.

The tournament's last three winners are in that group, so it's tough to pass on of them. Few of the longshots stand out as strong plays on this course, so picking a couple guys near the top and calling it a week probably isn't the worst strategy.

I will go with one play in this range and back Jason Day at +2600 on DraftKings. I intend to back Day in all majors for the rest of the year, and his form is as good as anyone right now. Day has finished inside the top 10 in each of his previous four events, and he also has a couple top-three finishes on this course.

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The Mid-Tier

I won't dive too deeply here, but I'll be trying Patrick Reed one more time at +3000 at BetMGM. Reed has finished inside the top 15 in three of his last four events and plays well in Boston. In his last four appearances at TPC Boston, he has finished sixth or better three times.

[Bet Patrick Reed at BetMGM and get an INSTANT $500 deposit match.]

The Longshots

I usually don't dip into the longshots much for playoff events, but I'll keep an eye on players like Denny McCarthy, Joel Dahmen and Brendan Steele for top-20 plays later in the week. Given everything we've seen in these star-heavy fields, it's tough to expect any of these guys can win outright, but all are capable of a solid week.

The Northern Trust Card

• Jason Day +2600 (1.27 units)
• Patrick Reed +3000 (1.1 units)

Total Stake: 2.38 units