Liverpool vs. Manchester United Sunday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Jan. 17

 Liverpool vs. Manchester United Odds

Odds updated as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Two of English football's most successful and storied clubs will meet on Sunday as Manchester United travels to Anfield to take on Liverpool. United currently sits three points ahead of their longtime rivals Liverpool atop the Premier League table.

Liverpool

About two weeks ago, Liverpool was in prime position to expand its lead and potentially start to pull away from the rest of the pack. But draws to West Brom and Newcastle, followed by an away loss at Southampton, leave the Reds chasing United with many others close behind.

The performances haven't been vintage Liverpool, but the results are more a matter of poor finishing and a bad run of variance than a true drop-off in performance.

They won the expected goals battle 1.6-0.5 against West Brom, 1.1-0.3 against Newcastle and 1.1-0.6 against Southampton. They aren't producing at the same level they were in the first 10 matches of the season, but their attackers are still dangerous.

A lot of these matches where they were marginally better than their opponent last year, they won. Now, those matches have not gone their way. As a whole, Liverpool's numbers for the year rank them second in xG difference per 90. A poor run of finishing from their top attackers and some good opposition goalkeeper play has masked a period where Liverpool have mostly been fine.

Liverpool's injuries at center back have changed how the Reds have played this season. They're not pressing as much in 2020-21 as they were in 2019-20 (no one is), and they're allowing a higher xG/shot.

They've struggled away from Anfield too, but at home, they've been as good as ever. Liverpool's +1.37 xG difference per 90 at home is even better than last year's number.

Manchester United

While Liverpool has been marginally outplaying their lesser opponents and not pulling out the result, the Red Devils are getting the timely goals to produce results and catapult them to the top of the table. The Red Devils snuck by Wolves on a deflected stoppage time winner. A deflected goal vs. Burnley proved the difference and a Paul Pogba penalty helped them past Aston Villa in a largely even match.

The Red Devils' underlying numbers have improved — they now rank sixth in xG difference/90 after starting the season really poorly — but they still don't look good enough in underlying numbers to sustain a title challenge.

The must-have app for soccer bettors

Custom scoreboard for your bets

Free soccer picks from experts

Live odds for every game

Download Now

Manager Ole Gunnar Solskjær knows that United have been shaky defensively in guarding the wings, and he'll also be weary of allowing Liverpool to hit them on the break in transition.

United has been better away from Old Trafford than at home, ranking second in away xG difference. They have seven wins and one draw on their travels.

Betting Analysis

Manager Jurgen Klopp will not want to see United's elite transition offense running at his makeshift backline too often. This game is likely to be decided by the width, where United's wide forwards need to provide defensive support to stop Mo Salah and Sadio Mané. Trent Alexander-Arnold's defensive liabilities and recent offensive dip in form opens the door for Marcus Rashford to get into space. Liverpool's midfielders will look to exert control to prevent that.

Solskjær will let Liverpool have more of the ball and more of the territory. With Virgil van Dijk, this game might actually be more open than I think it will be without him.

In three games against Liverpool in the past, Solskjær's United has never generated more than one goal and 1.2 xG. He'd be happy with a point in this match, and will set up to frustrate Liverpool's attack.  Solskjær was conservative in both matches against Manchester City and the match vs. Chelsea, three games that combined for two total goals.

I like this under 2.75 at -115 or better, given the conservative approach from both teams to avoid what would be a costly loss. I make Liverpool -113 in this match, and see no value in backing the side in the match.

Liverpool's one big weakness could be defending set pieces. If you're looking for a fun prop bet for the biggest game of the season, it's worth a few dollars to throw on Harry Maguire to score +1150.

Maguire has been close to scoring on headers of late and the Reds do not have a good way to stop him on set pieces. Maguire did score against Burnley before the goal was ruled out due to a foul.

Pick: Under 2.75 (-115 or better) | Maguire to score +1150 (0.25 units)