Premier League Betting Odds & Pick: Value On the Over In Fulham vs. Chelsea (Saturday, Jan. 16)

Fulham vs. Chelsea Odds

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Chelsea looks to end its bad run of form on Saturday when it takes on inter-city rival Fulham in a London Derby.

Fulham was only given 48 hours notice that it was replacing Aston Villa Wednesday against Tottenham. However, the Cottagers escaped with 1-1 draw that helped push them closer to getting out of the relegation zone.

Scott Parker's squad is in the middle of a terribly difficult part of the schedule, as they also have to play at Old Trafford against Manchester United on Wednesday. However, they are desperate for points right now sitting two points from safety and a result on Saturday would go a long way in surviving relegation.

Frank Lampard's squad is in dreadful run of form at the moment, as they have lost five of their last seven matches. The Blues now find themselves in ninth place in the table and six points off the top four. Winning favorable matchups like this one is crucial if they are going to finish inside the top four and qualify for the Champions League.

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Fulham

Fulham started the season horribly, but since have been playing much better. The Cottagers have drawn five matches in a row, including 1-1 draws with Liverpool and Tottenham.

The biggest difference is they are playing much better defense than in the beginning of the season. Over their last five matches, they are allowing only 1.36 xG per match, compared to 1.79 in their first 11 matches. However, a lot of that defensive success has come against teams near the bottom of the table.

Despite holding Tottenham to a 1-1 draw on Wednesday, Spurs created numerous high-quality chances and, in all honesty, should have walked away with three points.

That has been the story when Fulham faces teams in the top half of the table, as they've allowed 1.92 xG in eight matches versus the top ten teams in the Premier League. However, they've held their own in those matches offensively averaging 1.32 xG, as Scott Parker's team loves to go forward as often as possible.

Chelsea

So, what's been the issue for the Blues during their last seven matches?

It certainly hasn't been their offense, as Chelsea has accumulated 9.47 xGF over those matches, despite scoring only scoring seven goals, so positive offensive regression is coming their way. They also should be able to improve as well if Frank Lampard stops playing Timo Werner up front in their patented 4-3-3 and uses either Olivier Giroud or Tammy Abraham, who both have an xG per 90 rate over 0.60, when Werner's is 0.37 from open play.

The problem lies in their defense, which has allowed 1.34 xG per match over their last six matches, when they allowed only 0.86 xG per match in their first 11.

Good offense combined with bad defense has led to a lot of high-scoring affairs for Chelsea, as five of their last six matches have gone over 2.5 goals. Could they be in store for another high-scoring affair at Craven Cottage?

Betting Analysis & Picks

I think Chelsea's offense should be able to run rampant on Fulham like Tottenham was able to do on Wednesday. On the flip side, Chelsea's defense has been just shaky enough to allow Fulham one too many high-quality chances.

Since I have 2.93 xG projected for this match, I think there is some value on Over 3 goals at +123.

Pick: Over 3 goals (+123)