Ravens vs. Steelers Odds & Picks For Wednesday’s Spread & Total
Justin K. Aller/Getty Images. Pictured: Marquise Brown, Joe Haden
The second meeting between the Ravens and Steelers looks a lot different than anticipated: This was supposed to be a primetime showdown between the reigning NFL MVP and the league's only remaining undefeated team on Thanksgiving Day.
Now — three postponements and a bevy of positive COVID-19 tests later — they'll finally play … at 3:40 p.m. ET on a Wednesday and without Jackson (and more than a dozen players on both sides of the ball).
Still, there is football to bet on, which means our staff is here to breakdown their picks.
Ravens vs. Steelers Odds & Picks
Ravens-Steelers Under 42
Stuckey: Given the matchup — which I analyze in depth here — it's hard to see the Ravens offense doing much against this Steelers defense, so I sided with the under here.
The Ravens defense will show up, and I still see issues with this Steelers offense, which has struggled to run the ball — aka where you can really attack this shorthanded the Ravens defense. And they can certainly match up with Steelers receivers.
There's a lot of guesswork that went into this one, but I felt comfortable placing a small bet on the under, though I wouldn't bet it below 41.
Ravens +10 & +390 ML
Brandon Anderson: It feels like the season is totally slipping away from the Ravens — and that was before this team-wide COVID-19 breakout.
They've lost three of four (one of them to these Steelers) and just don’t look like themselves. The offense line is a far cry from the 2019 version, Lamar Jackson isn’t hitting his MVP numbers, and the defense has faltered of late. Now add in all the COVID-19 question marks, and you can see the money pouring in on the undefeated Steelers as this line has doubled since opening.
But check the advanced metrics, and the Steelers are barely even ahead of the Ravens in the standings.
Both teams continue to put up pretty mediocre offensive numbers and let their defenses carry the day. The Ravens rank third in point differential, behind only the Steelers and Chiefs. Baltimore is down but not out.
This is one of the NFL’s fiercest rivalries, and it almost always lives up to the billing. Eight of the last 11 meetings have finished within one score, with Baltimore winning six and Pittsburgh winning five. Pittsburgh won the game a month ago, but Baltimore actually dominated the game. The Ravens more than doubled the Steelers in total yardage and were especially dominant on the ground with a monster 265 rushing yard total and more than 10 additional minutes of possession.
The problem was that the Ravens also had 110 penalty yards and four turnovers, so the Steelers eked out a win.
The Ravens have a lot more on the line here, because they may not even make the playoffs if they can’t pull off a win here. Between that, the history, the high line and the way the Ravens rushing attack manhandled the Steelers last time, I have to side with the Ravens here — even without Jackson.
I'll bet the Ravens at +10, but I’m not stopping there. The +390 moneyline implies a meager 20% chance of the Ravens winning outright, and I just can’t buy that. Pittsburgh has a long history of coming out flat in games as heavy favorites, and Baltimore has too good of a spine and coaching system in place to be at 20% against anyone.
I’m putting a good chunk of my bet on the ML at such long odds and putting my faith in the running game and defense. Have the '72 Dolphins ever popped champagne on a Wednesday afternoon before?
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