Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma Odds

Oklahoma and Oklahoma State meet Saturday in Norman for the 115th edition of Bedlam. The Cowboys have won this rivalry matchup just twice in the past 10 years, and the Sooners are a touchdown favorite. But signs point to Oklahoma State having a shot at a road upset this season.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

A bye week was needed for the Cowboys after a home loss to Texas and a narrow victory over Kansas State.

Oklahoma State posted a 28% Success Rate in passing downs and just one explosive drive in 13 possessions against Kansas State. An 85-yard fumble return for a touchdown was the biggest contributor to the victory.

The Pokes were without some of their most talented players heading into the bye week, including wide receiver Tylan Wallace and safety Kolby Harvell-Peel. Running back Chuba Hubbard was limited in practices before the Kansas State game, and his status, along with the others,  is unknown.

Spencer Sanders continues to struggle with pressure, an issue that continues with the loss of two offensive linemen in previous games. Sanders has a completion percentage of 71% without pressure, but with pressure, the quarterback falls to 43% with 10 sacks on 31 dropbacks.

Oklahoma Sooners

Boomer hit the bye week rolling, scoring an average of 52.5 points over four games since its loss to Iowa State. In those four games against Kansas, Texas Tech, TCU and Texas, the offensive line allowed just nine quarterback hurries. This produced an explosive pass attack led by quarterback Spencer Rattler, who posted an 8:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

As Rattler and the offense excelled in pass explosiveness and finishing drives, the defense has improved under coordinator Alex Grinch. Oklahoma is 11th in defensive Havoc and 12th in Line Yards. More importantly, the Sooners are top-30 in Opponent Success Rate, which is proof of the hustle; the team grades 99th in tackling. Linebacker Nik Bonitto ranks in the top 40 individually in the nation with eight tackles for loss.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

The Bedlam series has been dominated by high-flying offenses with recent names such as Mason Rudolph, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts and Baker Mayfield headlining.

The 2020 version is all about the defenses, creating a change of pace in how to handicap this game.

Mike Gundy has increasingly mentioned missing offensive linemen replaced by freshmen, an issue that may be exposed against an Oklahoma defense that is among the top 15 in Line Yards, Power Success and Stuff Rate.

Oklahoma State has primarily been a run-first offense at a 64% rate, well above the national average of 54%. The Pokes have a clear advantage in explosiveness if Hubbard is healthy, an unknown element until kickoff.

As for Oklahoma State, the defense and special teams have been the drivers behind the success this season. Rattler will see pressure in passing downs, and if he reverts to how he played in September, this game could be all Oklahoma State. The Pokes have played their best defense within their 40-yard line, allowing just 2.2 points per trip to opponents.

Historically, Bedlam has been a house of horrors for the Cowboys, with just two wins in the past decade. Those previous Oklahoma State teams tried to match offensive firepower with the Sooners, but this season both teams have Havoc-minded defenses. That may not be good news for Rattler, who has been turnover-prone when chased from the pocket.

Look for the Pokes offense to do enough in run blocking to get a healthy Hubbard the explosive runs needed to put points on the board. Oklahoma State fields the better tackling defense and special teams, which may lead it to an outright upset in windy Norman.

Pick: Oklahoma State +7 or better