Raptors vs. 76ers Odds

The Toronto Raptors travel to Philadelphia to face the 76ers in a clash between Atlantic Division contenders.

The Raptors have started slowly, especially defensively, as they dropped their first two games to the Pelicans and Spurs. The Sixers defeated the Wizards and Knicks before getting thumped by the Cavs on Sunday (the second game of a back-to-back) while Joel Embiid sat out with back spasms.

Embiid’s injury has him listed as probable, and resting him on the second leg of back-to-back games isn’t a new trend. Although at the time of writing (Monday afternoon) there has been no update on his status for Tuesday, we'll assume Embiid faces Toronto.

Since losing to the Mavericks on Dec. 20, 2019, the Sixers have won 16 home games in a row at Wells Fargo Center. While Philadelphia should continue to protect home court, there is better value on the under.

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Toronto Raptors

Toronto's greatest strengths last season were its second-ranked defense and second-ranked transition offense. This season (although it’s still incredibly early), the Raptors have lost their first two games because they have fallen to 18th in Defensive Efficiency and 21st in transition offense.

The Raptors are extremely talented and well-coached, but the defense has looked rusty early on. Having lost Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka in free agency, the Raptors have had too many miscommunications defensively and have been out-rebounded in each game. The Raptors have also been somewhat unlucky with both of their opponents having shot better than 40% from 3-point range against them.

While the early returns have been disappointing from the defense, there isn’t any reason to panic. With Aron Baynes and Chris Boucher taking over inside, there will be some growing pains, especially early in the season after a limited training camp and preseason.

With a few days between games to analyze what has gone wrong and adjust, I feel confident that head coach Nick Nurse and his staff will come more prepared against the division-rival Sixers.

Philadelphia 76ers

With Embiid on the floor, the Sixers have vastly improved their spacing from last season, putting an emphasis on shooting this offseason. The Sixers added Seth Curry, Danny Green and Tyrese Maxey to go along with Shake Milton and Furkan Korkmaz, who is day to day after suffering a groin injury on Sunday.

Philadelphia’s spacing has given Embiid more space to operate on the interior, which will give shooters open looks on the perimeter if defenders help on Embiid. While the Sixers have gotten better looks this season, they are still shooting just 27.5% in the games Embiid has played.

Through three total games, Philadelphia entered play on Monday ranked 23rd in Offensive Efficiency (104.3) according to NBA.com.

While they haven’t been efficient offensively, the Sixers rank third in offensive rebounding. They will need another quality performance on the glass to generate more shots and take advantage of Toronto’s third-worst defensive rebounding rate, according to NBA.com.

It’s tough to read too much into Philadelphia’s stats, though, considering it hasn't played any teams that are considered contenders yet. Nonetheless, the Sixers are again a top-10 team in defensive efficiency, led by Ben Simmons and Embiid.

After Knicks guard R.J. Barrett opened the season with 26 points on 11 of 15 shooting against the Pacers, Simmons shut him down. Barrett scored just 10 points on 2 of 15 shooting against the Sixers.

Simmons will need to deliver another quality performance against perimeter threats such as Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby to keep Philly’s home winning streak alive.

Raptors-76ers Pick

While I lean toward the Sixers winning at home, I don’t love the value enough to justify a play there. Embiid’s back stiffness slightly worries me, but I expect the Raptors to be focused and bounce back with a quality performance, especially on defense, specifically when it comes to communicating and rebounding.

Additionally, the Raptors entered Monday having allowed the fewest opposing points in the paint among in the league (40.0 per game) so a regression in opponents' 3-point percentage will be especially valuable for them.

The Sixers also have talented, long defenders like the Raptors and were also a top-10 defense last season. Philadelphia has the 10th-ranked defensive rating, according to NBA.com, and are ninth in opposing points in the paint (44.7) entering Monday.

Neither team is lighting it up offensively either with the Sixers ranking 23rd in offensive efficiency and the Raptors 28th going into Monday. Furthermore, neither of these offenses has faced a defense that ranked in the top 20 of defensive efficiency from last season.

I expect this to be a physical, slower-paced matchup between division rivals and give the advantage to the strong defenses.

Consequently, I like the value on Under 218.5 just enough to justify a small play down to 215.5.

Pick: Under 218.5 (down to 215.5)