Nuggets vs. Nets Odds

The Denver Nuggets won their first two games of an East Coast road trip against the shorthanded 76ers on Saturday and the Knicks on Sunday. They look to finish the East Coast swing perfect against the shorthanded Brooklyn Nets who will be without Kyrie Irving for the fourth game in a row.

The Nets welcomed Kevin Durant back on Sunday, but fell to the Thunder 129-116 as Durant tallied 36 points, but the Nets shot just 29.4% from behind the arc.

Can we expect another big game from Durant on Tuesday to power the Nets to a win? Let's dig in and find out.

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Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets dropped four of their first five games of the season against a tough Western Conference schedule, but have bounced back to win four of their past five (with the lone loss coming in overtime) to get back to .500 on the season.

While Jamal Murray has been good, he isn't nearly the player he was in the bubble. Nikola Jokic has not only been great, he has also vaulted himself into the MVP discussion. Jokic has the highest Player Efficiency Rating in the NBA (30.1) and is averaging a triple-double with 24.4 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 10.4 assists per game entering Tuesday.

Jokic has been sensational, and despite the absence of Michael Porter Jr., the offense hasn’t missed a beat as they are rank second in the NBA in Offensive Efficiency.

Jokic has been the engine of the Nuggets' offense and ranks in the 99th percentile in Usage Rate (32.8) among bigs in the NBA while ranking in the 80th percentile of points per 100 shot attempts (133.7) and having the best assist percentage (42.9) among all bigs (per Cleaning the Glass).

While Denver’s offense has been elite, its defense ranks near the bottom of the NBA (112.2 Defensive Rating). They will need to find a way to limit Durant and make someone else beat them with Irving absent.

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Brooklyn Nets

The Nets will need to be mentally strong if they hope to win on Tuesday. They disappointed in Durant’s return against his former team. They also have to deal with the distraction of Irving’s absence — which has garnered quite a bit of speculation, especially after videos surfaced of him at a party on Monday night.

If any team can block out this kind of distraction, it’s a team with arguably the best scorer on the planet, Durant. The Nets have Durant to lead the offense, and despite absences from both Irving and Durant this season, the Nets have been at the top of the league on defense.

Per Cleaning The Glass, they rank seventh in Defensive Efficiency, but they are first in limiting opponent Effective Field Goal percentage. They will need a strong defensive outing on Tuesday and to improve their rebounding if they hope to beat the Nuggets as a slight home underdog.

Nuggets-Nets Pick

The Brooklyn loss in Durant’s return on Sunday and the Irving situation will combine to give the Nets a rare opportunity to play as home underdogs, which has bee a profitable spot so far this season — 36-29 against the spread (55.4%).

Jarrett Allen will play a key role for the Nets in guarding Jokic and grabbing rebounds. He is one of the few bigs with the size and strength to have a chance against Jokic, and his rebounding has been elite this season.

Per Cleaning The Glass, the Nets are 12.0 points better when he is on the court compared to when he's off the court. This is a big reason why he has taken over the starting center role from DeAndre Jordan (whom the Nets have been 14.2 points worse with on the floor than off).

While I like the Nets to win on the money line at -102 (with value down to -115), I like the value even better of FanDuel’s player performance double of Jarrett Allen to score 10-plus points and Brooklyn to win at +210.

Since Allen took over as the starting center four games ago, he has scored at least 12 points in each game, and he should have at least a few easy points at the rim with Jokic on him defensively.

Both teams rank among the top-10 in Offensive Efficiency, but the Nets defense is in the top third of the league, while the Nuggets defense ranks in the bottom third.

I would be this prop down to +160.

Pick: Jarrett Allen to score 10+ points/Nets to Win (+210)