UFC 254 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Ion Cutelaba (Saturday, Oct. 24)
Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: (R-L) Magomed Ankalaev kicks Ion Cutelaba in their light heavyweight bout.
- Magomed Ankalaev and Ion Cutelaba meet in a rematch that has been rescheduled multiple times since February.
- Sean Zerillo's model is showing value on props in this main card scrap.
- Check out Zerillo's full breakdown for updated odds, picks, and predictions ahead of Saturday's fight.
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Ion Cutelaba Odds
| Ankalaev odds | -325 [BET NOW] |
| Cutelaba odds | +240 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-130/+102) [BET NOW] |
| Venue | Yas Island, Abu Dhabi |
| Time | Saturday, 2 p.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPN PPV |
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The rematch between Magomed Ankalaev and Ion Cutelaba has already been rescheduled three times since April and is at risk yet again due to Cutelaba's cornerman testing positive for COVID on Friday.
The first matchup was compelling enough to survive numerous last-minute cancellations and, if all goes well, we could very well see some fireworks again. Oddsmakers listed this fight as the least likely to go the distance.
So where's the betting value? Below, I break down the Ankalaev vs. Cutelaba odds and matchup. You can also check out my analysis of the 11 other bouts here.
Tale of the Tape
| Ankalaev | Cutelaba | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-1 | 26-8 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:07 | 12:01 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 78" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/26/89 | 2/24/83 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.88 | 3.45 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.00 | 2.77 |
| SS Defense | 48% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.25 | 1.16 |
| TD Acc | 16% | 52% |
| TD Def | 82% | 65% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.3 |
Ankalaev vs. Cutelaba Pick
My thoughts on the bout have not changed, and I'll keep them brief in case we see its fourth cancelation.
Ankalaev has been the superior fighter for 99% of his time inside the octagon, save for a conspiracy-level highly-questionable late submission loss to Paul Craig in his debut, as a substantial favorite – and I believe that the Dagestani-born fighter is destined for stardom:
Magomed Ankalaev landing one of the best front kicks you will ever see. #UFCVegas8pic.twitter.com/3QlQfgxBGP
— BirksMMA (@BirksMMA) August 29, 2020
I projected Ankalaev’s odds to win inside the distance around 63%, implied odds of -170 and I would make a small play up to -138 (implied 58%) at a five percent edge.
There's no denying that the first encounter between these two ended in an extremely controversial manner. Cutelaba was playing rope a dope so to speak, but he was also getting clipped repeatedly.
The Pick: Ankalaev to win Inside the Distance (-135, 0.5u)
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