Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Southampton vs. West Ham (Tuesday, Dec. 29)

Southampton vs. West Ham Odds

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If there was ever going to be a season where a non-traditional club qualifies for the Champions League in England, this is looking like the one.

Enter Southampton — heck, maybe even West Ham. The Saints enter Tuesday’s match against the Hammers just two points back of fourth place, having gone three matches without a win (two draws).

West Ham, meanwhile, are three points behind Southampton and also have just two points from their last three games. Those results, though, have yielded differing performances from their opponents.

Let me explain while we find betting value.

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Southampton

During their three-match winless run, Southampton’s defense and organization has still been on full display. The Saints drew Arsenal and Fulham while losing 1-0 to Manchester City, conceding a combined two goals through the three games.

The issue for the Saints during this stretch has been scoring goals, an issue that could be alleviated by the potential return of striker Danny Ings. The English striker returned from one injury earlier in the month and then was taken off against City on Dec. 19 after 41 minutes due to a hamstring injury.

It seems unlikely that Ings would be thrown right back into the starting XI in his return from a second injury in such a short period of time, but any way he could contribute would be welcome to Southampton.

The Saints have benefitted this season from improved finishing by striker Che Adams, Ings’ normal partner up top, but the duo is necessary to the club’s hopes this season. There’s no question that Ralph Hassenhuttl’s team will be difficult to break down defensively, so every goal is necessary.

Southampton do lead the Premier League with eight goals from set pieces, which is partly due to James Ward-Prowse’s dead-ball expertise and impressive size among the Saints’ squad. They face a West Ham team that matches up well with them in that department, though.

West Ham

While Southampton have remained defensively resolute during their three-match winless run, West Ham have not. The Hammers have allowed six goals between matches against Crystal Palace (one), Chelsea (three) and Brighton (two) while scoring three.

One area that West Ham haven't struggled is creating chances, something in which they're hugely benefitted this season from, like Southampton, set pieces. According to Who Scored, the Hammers are on of the three teams tied with the Saints with eight goals from set pieces this season.

West Ham does not have a set-piece extraordinaire like Ward-Prowse. They have size and athleticism, as evidence of none of the eight goals coming directly from a free kick.

The Hammers have loads of attacking depth, although Michail Antonio is unlikely to feature in this game. They aren't necessarily using it, though, playing with five defenders for most of the season. Said Benrahma was signed from Brentford at the transfer deadline, and he hasn't made much of an impact this season.

Betting Analysis

This has all the ingredients to not be the game of the season in the Premier League. Neither side has great playmakers in the midfield and will play more defensive-minded players in the middle of the park. That means neither will look to take the game by the scruff of the neck and dominate it.

These two teams' underlying metrics don't give either any advantage either. so I am more inclined to trust the team that has proven to be more organized and better coached. It also helps that team is at home.

Southampton were one of the Premier League's best home teams last season, and they've won four and lost three this season, although those defeats were against Tottenham, Manchester United and Manchester City.

Back the Saints with plus odds to take all three points.

Pick: Southampton ML +125